Addicted to chocolate? here's some bad news for you. Start stocking up because according to Barry Callebaut’s annual report in 2014 there could be a “potential global shortage of chocolate by the year 2020″. Barry Callebaut is the world’s largest supplier of chocolate, so this is pretty serious.
When the report says shortage it doesn’t mean the end of chocolate forever. Although it could mean the end of chocolate’s time as a household commodity. So how did this happen right under our noses?
Starting around the year 2011 chocolate production started to drop rapidly and kept dropping till the year 2013 where it slowly started to recover. Potential factors that could’ve affected production could include the civil war that broke out in the Ivory Coast at 2011 and the 2013 Ebola epidemic that plagued West Africa resulting in significant loss of life and social disruption across the region.
Cocoa trees need humid environments to grow and produce beans. That's a basic fact. Which is why the top 10 countries that produce cocoa are within 20 degrees of the equator.
The world's largest consumers of chocolate are what we consider to be first-world countries. Here is the GDP of the world's largest consumer of chocolate compared to the world's largest cocoa farming country. The disparity between the two is evident.
The law of demand and supply states that is demand is high but supply is low then the price of the commodity will rise. Until the demand for chocolate decreases, it well may become a luxury item. Despite the fact that chocolate is actually getting more expensive or smaller through the years, demand seems to be steadily growing.
Cocoa farmers today receive about 6% of the price that consumers in rich countries pay for chocolate. In the 1980s their share was almost three times as great: 16%. Part of the problem is that cocoa farmers receive only a part of the world market price for beans, due to local trading structures, taxes and also the quality of the beans. Meanwhile Manufacturers like Mars, Mondelez and Nestle receive up to 35% of the market price.
Farmers are rarely organised, under-invested and lack insight into market trends for cocoa prices. They have to sell their cocoa at prices dictated by middle-men for manufacturers.
Manufacturers will survive either way. Best case scenario they make chocolate a luxury item through monopolizing the market. Worst case scenario, chocolate does run out but even then these companies are part of massive conglomerates that control other major companies. Consumers will be relatively fine short-term. As long as chocolate is still on the shelves and we can still afford it.
But what about the farmers?
They are a drew the short end of the straw. If farmers have no incentive to grow chocolate, they will move into a more dependable industry to support themselves and their families.
No Farmers, No chocolate.
So until more action is taken to make the industry more ethical and sustainable for the long-term, start stocking up and saving up. Make every bite count.